Aug 13, 2004
I know this is old news but I need to catch up.
Why did John Kerry win the Democratic nomination?
Let's get this clear because this is important to my thinking on the election. John Kerry did NOT win because of Howard Dean's screaming fest. The polls were already trending for Kerry and he won the Iowa caucus BEFORE the Dean scream fest. Essentially the establishment chose Kerry because he was the safe candidate. He had the intersection of all the right things to be the Anti-Bush. He had a war service/hero record (sure we see weaknesses to it, but he was as John McCain as the Democrats could find). He had a moderate view on the war (while Democrate hated this they knew the middle of the road voter would never accept Dean's view on the war). He has a long record of public service (John Edwards is just an infant). And finally he had no embarassing failures (Gephardt while loved, has yet to prove he can win anything big). Kerry was the logical choice of big Democrat money and organization. The party bosses may no longer make decisions at party conventions but do not fool yourself into thinking that they are not involved in the primaries in a definitive way. Kerry was the best Anti-Bush. And here comes the heretical comment by me: Kerry was clever enough to market himself as just that. He has enough of a liberal record to keep the base happy, and meanwhile he can be "nuanced" for the moderate swing voter. One of the mistakes that people make is discounting the power of organization and planning in elections.
For instance, I contend that the election process is a natural selection process that ensures that the best manager rises to the general election in open contest years. Let's look at 2000. There were stories for it seems like two years about Bush having meetings with important Republicans. What was that all about? He ensured that by time the election got going he had all the best people behind him in terms of money and organization. He didn't beat McCain on issues or in the press, he beat him by good old organization and money. Now, I would also contend that 2000 was NOT an open year for the Democrats. Gore was defaulted into the nomination because he was the VP. He lost in November because he was not really as good a manager as Bush. Sure, he may have a higher IQ, but do you really want a Rocket Scientist with his pocket protector as CEO of any of the companies you have your retirement invested in? The point is simply that the ability to manage naturally gets rewarded in an open primary. This year the Democrats had an open primary and Dean was clever and smart, but not as well managed.
Aug 12, 2004
Okay, I have been away too long. I can't stand it anymore. I must return.
While the news is slow, there are things to talk about and I need to be heard. So here is a short list:
- and the straw that broke the camel's back? McGreevey resigns.
So I am reading this article about McGreevey. He sets up this news conference to make it sound so sad that he is gay and has to resign because it is a distraction to his ability to govern. What a saint. He is saving the people of New Jersey from distractions. But wait there is more. Turns out his team was under scrutiny for some illegal practices like hiring call girls to embarrass a political opponent. And wait. His resignation is not effective until November 15th so that a special election does not need to be held which might open the door to a Republican victory out of a political backlash--now who is worrying about the people of New Jersey first? And wait, it gets even better. He is doing this because his gay lover is blackmailing him with the threat of revealing the secret affair. Not out of duty, but to trump incredible demands! And wait, there is more. His wife, HIS SECOND wife, is standing next to him being supportive. He has a 2 year old daughter with his SECOND wife. How long have him and his SECOND wife been married? How did it so happen that he has a SECOND wife when he is gay? This man isn't gay or a saint. He is a just a liar and probably a sex addict.
Now do you understand why I need to come back? This is a crazy world and I just need to talk about it.